Anthony Joshua steps into his dust-up in the dunes in what may be greatest challenge — mentally, if not physically — that the 30 year-old will ever face.
Humbled and humiliated in New York six months ago, on his United States debut, Joshua was outboxed, out thought, dropped four times, and stopped by Andy Ruiz Jr. He must now show that he can make the adjustments to rewrite his own script in the history of the heavyweight division.
Saudi Arabia has been the sub-plot with its human rights record and gender inequality, but in the foreground now is an intriguing fight. The theories on how it will play out have gone back and forth for weeks. Even Evander Holyfield came out of the woodwork last week and said he had sparred with Ruiz a decade ago for five weeks and “never managed to bust him up”.
Yesterday both fighters weighed in with dramatic differences from their first meeting: Ruiz tipped the scales at 20st 3lbs, a stone heavier than the New York shocker, and his heaviest for ten years. Joshua was ten pounds lighter at 16st 13lbs, his lightest since 2014. Clearly, Ruiz is looking for power, with Joshua looking for speed in his arms and longevity in this most important return rubber. No fight is ever won at a weigh-in, but it augers well for the Briton.
At this weight, myths reign in the days before a fight. Ruiz has professed that he saw Joshua “quit” in the first fight at Madison Square Garden, when he spat out his mouthguard while forced to his knees. Joshua is leaner and lighter, and this, his 24th fight, is a bigger moment in his career than the contest with Wladimir Klitschko, given what is at stake if he loses again.
The risks are high but so too are the rewards in a fight with a purse worth almost £70m. There is the chance of redemption if the Londoner can reclaim the International Boxing Federation, World Boxing Association and World Boxing Organisation baubles. But he faces a version of Ruiz who has grown in stature, and has carried the aura of the champion all week.
The game plan is set after a 12-week camp: Joshua must use his height and reach advantages, keep behind his jab, protect his chin and stay long for round after round, clinching and leaning on Ruiz when in close. The toughest mental test will be doing exactly that, because Joshua’s propensity as a boxer is to want to get into a firefight.
That approach got him out of trouble in the Olympic final with Roberto Cammarelle, against Dillian Whyte after he had been rocked by a left hook, and against Klitschko, when he showed superb survival skills against a great, albeit ageing, champion. But not last time out.
And what of Ruiz? From my corner, Ruiz will have made few adjustments, but he will feint more to get on the inside, and let those dangerous hooks go. When Ruiz is in range, he will let fly and punch with Joshua. He knows he may have the upper hand in this area, with faster hand speed and now, a growing self-belief. But Ruiz will be patient, too, and having a stealth tactic and waiting for his moment could pay off again. His body language, confidence, even the New York Knicks shirt, have all looked smart in the build up.
Manny Robles, Ruiz’s wise old trainer, told me this: “Joshua will be mentally scarred. I don’t think it’s that hard to figure out. It does play on your mind. Joshua can come into the rematch in great physical shape, but mentally? Will he be there? Will he exchange with him? It’s going to happen. He can’t box all night. A lot of people think Joshua’s going to come out and try to box. Try to use his length. He did that in the first round at MSG. But you can only box for so long.”
In other words, the “chubby little fat guy” — an incredible four inches shorter, and giving away eight inches in reach — has become an immovable object.
“Eventually Andy is going to get in there and work that body and that head. How is AnthonyJoshua going to react when he gets hit? We all know what we’re working with with Ruiz. He took some good shots in that fight and he took them well.
“He got knocked down and got back up. He took a few more shots after that and took them very well. On the other hand, Joshua didn’t react well. Not only that, speed equals power. I don’t think Joshua has fought anyone this quick. We proved the world wrong. We’re planning to do it again. I know we’re not the favourites again, but that doesn’t matter.”
The message is that Andy Ruiz Jr just needs to be Andy Ruiz Jr. Be himself, be comfortable, be the boxer with the longer record and greater experience, the man who shocked the world, the first Mexican heavyweight champion.
Promoter Eddie Hearn told Telegraph Sport: “I think it’s a 50/50 fight, personally. I’ve never seen AJ so focused to get a win. I think the greatest quote he has ever said is, ‘never let success go to your head and never let defeat go to your heart.’”
Rob McCracken, Joshua’s trainer, told me: “As long as he punches at the right time, that’s what this fight is all about. Control the opponent and stick to the strategy. If we didn’t learn something from that first fight there would be something wrong with us.”
Joshua has dreamt of the combination that finishes Ruiz, in a heap, in the dust. He will hope that image is the one to be beamed around the world from the Middle East on Saturday. But it will depend on Joshua keeping a strong mindset. If, as conventional wisdom suggests, he keeps it long, and uses a strong jab, his height and reach advantages, the dunes could bring good tunes for the Briton. But he will have to keep his nerve, and stick to the plan.
My verdict? Joshua on points, or late stoppage. But if he gets into a firefight early, it’s 60/40 Ruiz. The reckoning time of Joshua’s career is here, with victory setting up for an amazing 2020, with a clash of the titans: Joshua king again, and Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder in focus. It is time for Joshua to show that he can reach redemption.